Capital Markets

Doug Petno, newly appointed co-president of JPMorgan Chase, runs the Commercial & Investment Bank — the division most exposed to interest rate cycles, M&A volumes, and capital markets swings. Risk analysts rate the probability of a disruptive downturn during his early tenure as medium, with severity classified as major. A deal drought or credit market tightening could stall his strategic agenda before it takes hold.

Ultra-high-net-worth individuals are relocating from high-tax states like Hawaii to Florida, which has no state income tax. The pattern suggests a systematic wealth migration that could reshape regional capital markets and accelerate real estate appreciation in tax-favorable jurisdictions.

Venture capital limited partners now face 30-60% haircuts when selling fund positions in secondary markets, driven by extended holding periods and scarce exits. Credit instruments like Turbine Finance are emerging as alternatives, offering loans against illiquid VC portfolios to avoid forced sales at steep discounts.

Traditional venture capital firms now lead 8 of 10 funding rounds above $50M, reclaiming dominance as Tiger Global and SoftBank Vision Fund slashed deal counts 95% since 2021. Mega-rounds halved to 1,440 companies in 2025 while valuations recovered, forcing limited partners to accept 18-year fund durations as deployment cycles extend.