Commodities & Oil Markets

Oil prices surged 36% following Iran conflict escalation, while February job losses hit 92,000, forcing five major central banks into policy meetings between March 17-26. Former Fed official Loretta Mester says policymakers will demand "convincing evidence" of cooling inflation or labor weakness before cutting rates, leaving the Fed, ECB, and others in wait-and-see mode.

Geopolitical tensions in Iran have pushed oil and gas prices higher, disrupting shipping routes and threatening to reignite inflation pressures. The commodity shock arrives as the Federal Reserve faces a critical leadership transition in May 2026, raising concerns about central bank independence amid mounting fiscal pressures in the US and UK.