Makena Capital now models an 18-year lifespan for venture funds, with the majority of capital returning in years 16 through 18, according to LP allocator Lara Banks. The extended timeline reflects slower exit markets and higher valuation discipline across infrastructure-focused venture capital.
Andreessen Horowitz's infrastructure team passed on neocloud investments despite believing in the sector's potential. "We just talked ourselves out of it stupidly," said partner Martin Casado, citing valuation concerns that overrode conviction. The deployment restraint contrasts with the firm's $3 billion infrastructure fund raised in recent years.
The bifurcation extends beyond single firms. Infrastructure and B2B venture funds are extending hold periods while consumer investing shows emerging optimism. New manager formation in consumer categories suggests capital may rotate toward shorter-duration strategies as infrastructure exits stretch into the late 2040s based on current modeling.
Banks highlighted portfolio construction changes at Makena, where Stripe exposure serves as a hedge against Visa. The thesis: Stripe could use crypto rails to disrupt Visa's payment infrastructure, creating strategic portfolio balance across traditional and emerging financial technology.
The structural shift affects GP-LP dynamics. Limited partners now underwrite longer capital lockup periods while general partners face pressure to demonstrate portfolio progress without near-term liquidity events. Funds raised in 2026 may not return substantial capital until 2042-2044 under current timeline assumptions.
Deployment discipline matters more in extended-hold environments. Casado noted that team composition at a16z ignored conventional venture backgrounds from investment banking. "Martin didn't care what the conventional wisdom or background was" when building the infrastructure team, said Clouded Judgement host Jamin Ball.
The market now operates on two speeds: infrastructure funds modeling near-two-decade holds with selective deployment, and consumer-focused strategies potentially returning to aggressive capital deployment. LPs must calibrate portfolio construction across both duration profiles while managing liquidity needs that extend well beyond traditional 10-year fund cycles.