The Fed might not cut interest rates for a while. Here are 5 things we’re watching.

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• Unemployment rate expected to edge up to 4.5% by the end of 2026

  80% confidence

• The labor market has stabilized, and they need to keep policy a bit restrictive to help inflation move back down to 2%. It's a good time to wait.

  80% confidence

• The Fed is in a very good position to hold for a while and see how the economy actually evolves

  80% confidence

• Mortgage rates in 2026 could fluctuate between a low of 5.7% and a high of 6.5%

  80% confidence

• Employers expected to add just 64,500 jobs per month on average over the next year

  80% confidence

• It's not as vibrant of a labor market as you'd like, but that's because of the policies that have been put onto this economy, not anything a Fed tool like the fed funds rate can address. In an environment this difficult to read, I don't think it's very unusual or surprising that you'd have different views. If everyone agreed, I'd be worried they're not working at things as robustly as they should.

  80% confidence

• Before restarting rate cuts, policymakers are likely to say they want to see convincing evidence that either inflation is retreating back to 2% or that the labor market is starting to lose more steam

  80% confidence

• Mortgage rates are a focal point for both aspiring and current homeowners, and they are also an area of interest for the White House. There is little the Federal Reserve can do to push these borrowing rates meaningfully lower.

  80% confidence

• Some of the forces weighing on the labor market — like stricter immigration or tariffs — may be beyond the Fed's reach

  80% confidence

• S&P 500 expected to climb another 12% in 2026

  80% confidence

• Three Fed rate cuts worth 0.75 percentage points expected in 2026

  80% confidence

Cited in these Via News reports

• Fed, ECB, and Major Central Banks Halt Rate Cuts as Inflation Persists Above Targets →
• Five Central Banks Hold Rates March 17-26 as 92,000 US Job Losses, 36% Oil Spike Create Global Policy Dilemma →