Ambiq forecasts $31M-$32M Q2 net sales and ~75% YoY growth, supported by Apollo 5 scaling
View original at seekingalpha.com“We ended the quarter with no debt and $204.5 million in cash and cash equivalents”
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Ambiq needs revenues of roughly $47 million per quarter to reach profitability at current margin and spending levels.
60% confidenceSecond-half year-over-year growth is expected to be similar to first-half growth; a new baseline has been set.
60% confidenceQ2 2026 non-GAAP gross margin guided to 45%–46% and non-GAAP operating expense to $21M–$22M, including $1.7M for IP purchases.
60% confidenceQ1 2026 non-GAAP gross margin was 46.2%; excluding a Q1 2025 nonrecurring credit, gross margin increased 210 basis points year-over-year.
60% confidenceChina end-customer exposure was 13.7% of Q1 2026 net sales, tied to higher-value Edge AI functionality.
60% confidenceAtomic 110 remains on track for tape-out towards the end of 2026.
60% confidenceAmbiq expects net sales to grow approximately 75% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
60% confidenceManagement is hopeful investment can pull profitability timing from mid-2028 into early 2028 or potentially into the second half of 2027.
60% confidenceCompression Kit will be restricted to Ambiq's own products; the combination of Apollo plus Compression Kit creates multiplicative rather than additive value.
60% confidenceNon-GAAP loss per share guidance for Q2 2026 is $0.29 to $0.23, based on a weighted average share count of 21.38 million shares.
60% confidenceQ2 2026 represents a step-up in the baseline rather than a peak, with Q4 seasonality still expected.
60% confidenceTop three customers represented 71% of Q1 2026 net sales.
60% confidenceAmbiq guided Q2 2026 net sales to $31 million to $32 million.
60% confidenceApollo 340 is expected to sample in H1 2027, with initial customer ramps towards end of 2027 and more meaningful revenue in 2028.
60% confidenceInventory levels remain lean and the company is seeing an increasing number of expedited requests.
60% confidenceApproximately one quarter of Ambiq's pipeline is non-wearable, and the company grew 100% in the non-wearable market in Q1 2026.
60% confidenceAmbiq ended Q1 2026 with no debt and $204.5 million in cash and cash equivalents.
60% confidenceSome orders cannot be fulfilled due to excessively short lead times, but orders within normal lead times can be supported.
60% confidenceThe predominant reason for 2026 growth is unit shipments, with uplift expected in both units and ASPs; Ambiq is maximizing ASPs across different customers and markets.
60% confidenceIndustry-wide dynamics around substrate and piece-part costs may negate yield-driven cost reductions; Ambiq is being strategic about ASP uplift opportunities.
60% confidenceQ1 2026 net sales and gross profit came in well ahead of expectations, increasing both sequentially from Q4 2025 and year-over-year.
60% confidenceA new customer has some possibility of exceeding 10% of Ambiq's revenues.
60% confidenceNon-wearable use cases driving segment growth include ECD, glucose monitoring, bike computing, smart pen, battery monitors, remote controls, and livestock tracking.
60% confidenceAmbiq has started 2026 with exceptional momentum driven by the ultra-low power SPOT platform gaining share in a fast-growing Edge AI category.
60% confidenceAmbiq expects revenue from medical, industrial, and smart home/buildings segments to more than double in 2026.
60% confidenceQ1 2026 results were driven by broad-based demand for Edge AI, with more than 80% of units running AI algorithms.
60% confidence