Live coverage: Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 0.25%, Powell warns there's 'no risk-free path'

What we drew from this source

The claims Via News extracted from this document. We point to the source; we don't replace it.

• US interest rates should be much lower and are currently 3 percentage points too high

  80% confidence

• The balance of risks has shifted toward the labor market after downside risks to employment rose in recent months

  80% confidence

• There is no risk-free path for policy as the Fed navigates tension between employment and inflation goals

  80% confidence

• Three factors will help the economy in 2026: resilient consumer spending, AI spending on data centers, and supportive fiscal policy

  80% confidence

• The Fed's 0.25% rate cut is too small and should have been doubled, at least doubled

  80% confidence

• Housing is going to be a problem because the Fed doesn't have tools to address structural housing shortage

  80% confidence

• There is no need for another rate cut from the Federal Reserve

  80% confidence

• There are inflationary forces from governments borrowing record amounts, immigration reform fractionalizing labor supply, and tariffs fractionalizing goods flow

  80% confidence

• The Fed doesn't expect its next move to be a rate hike

  80% confidence

• The Fed will cast a skeptical eye on shutdown-distorted economic data, particularly household survey data and CPI

  80% confidence

• Tariffs are causing most of the inflation overshoot

  80% confidence

• The Fed will not cut rates again until after a new Chair replaces Jerome Powell in May

  80% confidence

• Powell sounded very upbeat on productivity and growth, including AI effects

  80% confidence

• A 25 basis point decline in the federal funds rate won't make much difference for housing affordability

  80% confidence

• The effects of tariffs on inflation will be relatively short-lived, effectively a one-time shift in the price level

  80% confidence

• The baseline outlook is for solid growth next year

  80% confidence

• A quarter-point change in the federal funds rate is not going to make much of a difference in the housing market

  80% confidence

• The Fed is killing growth because they're so afraid of inflation

  80% confidence

• Assuming no major new tariff announcements, inflation from goods should peak in the first quarter of 2026

  80% confidence

• AI job displacement is probably part of the story but not a big part yet

  80% confidence

• There's actually not much the Fed can do about affordability issues

  80% confidence

• The Fed's take on productivity and growth is very risk-friendly, with productivity possibly running about 2%

  80% confidence

• If the Fed lowers interest rates, that's probably going to increase home prices even more

  80% confidence

• The Fed expects tariffs to represent a one-time increase in prices and is focused on ensuring it stays that way

  80% confidence

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