AI: The companies hurting the most from latest infrastructure boom

What we drew from this source

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• International markets have been outperforming US markets, with international up around 9% while S&P 500 is up less than 1% so far in 2026

  80% confidence

• For immediate growth, investors should look to AI infrastructure names in construction, power, and cooling rather than software companies

  80% confidence

• By the second year after three consecutive double-digit years, the market is higher 100% of the time by an average return of 27%

  80% confidence

• Taiwan Semiconductor stock is up 20% year to date

  80% confidence

• Duke Energy pays a dividend yield of about 3.3%, trades at 18 times forward earnings, and stock is up over 10% year to date

  80% confidence

• 2026 will be more of an idle year with next year being more positive

  80% confidence

• Taiwan Semiconductor is a good play not just for 2026 but for the balance of this decade

  80% confidence

• US markets are dominated by three sectors: Information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary, while international developed markets are dominated by health care and financials

  80% confidence

• International has been significantly outperforming the US over the course of the last full one-year period

  80% confidence

• Duke Energy owns and operates 11 different nuclear sites on six different locations in North and South Carolina

  80% confidence

• AI infrastructure spending is not even at a trillion dollars right now

  80% confidence

• Iron Mountain pivoted from storing paper documents to leasing excess warehouse space to data centers

  80% confidence

• Looking back to 1950, there have been five times where the stock market rallied double digits over three consecutive years, and in the fourth year the market was only positive 40% of the time with average return under 20 basis points

  80% confidence

• The new Federal Reserve chair won't be as dovish as many had earlier thought

  80% confidence

• More short-term bouts of volatility expected throughout 2026

  80% confidence

• The international outperformance divergence may not continue due to multiple tailwinds for US markets including deregulation, potential interest rate reductions in second half of year, and massive CAPEX spending

  80% confidence

• There are multiple market rotations taking place in 2026: small cap over large cap, value over growth, and international over US

  80% confidence

• Emerging markets are outperforming developed markets within international equities

  80% confidence

• The Federal Reserve's neutral rate for Fed funds target rate is 3%, currently at 3.5% to 3.75%

  80% confidence

• The market can continue to move higher without Fed rate cuts if the economy is still growing, inflation is moderating, and employment remains stable

  80% confidence

• Maybe two rate cuts towards the second half of 2026

  80% confidence

• Data center maintenance goes on in perpetuity unlike data center construction

  80% confidence

• Investors are wise to question the amount of spending software companies are doing on AI and how they're financing it, but they need to be patient because ROI won't be seen for years

  80% confidence

• There will be between 3 and 4 trillion dollars spent on AI infrastructure by the end of this decade

  80% confidence

Data points we hold from this source