Stock market today: Dow rises, S&P 500 and Nasdaq slip as war uncertainty drives oil prices higher
View original at finance.yahoo.comStock market today: Dow rises, S&P 500 and Nasdaq slip as war uncertainty drives oil prices higher US stocks diverged on Monday as oil climbed and Wall Street headed into a holiday-shortened trading week, with investors bracing for fresh economic data amid lingering consumer uncertainty…
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We believe we will see a bottom in crypto stocks into weak Q1 earnings
60% confidenceFuel cost surge will lead to a drag on earnings per share of at least $0.70
60% confidenceCoinbase's earnings per share will grow by 23% in 2026, driven by a stablecoin boom, new product launches, and an expected crypto recovery
60% confidenceThe refining margins on fuel from Singapore have surged by roughly 400% since early February
60% confidenceThese businesses offer exposure to trillion dollar markets with years of growth ahead - prediction markets, stablecoins, tokenized real world assets, crypto derivatives and further beta on crypto recovery from the bottom
60% confidenceInflation expectations remain well anchored beyond the short term
60% confidenceEnergy shocks have tended to come and go pretty quickly
60% confidenceThe US is in serious discussions to end the military operation in Iran
60% confidenceThe combination of geopolitics and temporary crypto weak sentiment is offering big discounts on crypto stocks
60% confidenceBy the time the effects of tightening in monetary policy take effect, the oil price shock is probably long gone, and you're weighing on the economy at a time when it's not appropriate
60% confidenceThe tendency is to look through any kind of a supply shock, though the critical point is to monitor inflation expectations
60% confidenceAbsent impacts from fuel, Puerto Vallarta, and Hawaii storms, Air Group's results would have exceeded the midpoint of original guidance
60% confidencePreference would be for the US to control the oil industry in Iran indefinitely
60% confidenceIf a deal is not reached shortly, the US would obliterate Iran's key desalination and energy infrastructure
60% confidenceWe will eventually face the question of what to do here, but we're not facing them yet because we don't know what the economic effects will be
60% confidenceOver time, the US is going to retake control of the straits, and there will be freedom of navigation — whether it is through US escorts or a multinational escort
60% confidence
Data points we hold from this source
| UBS Group AG · shares held | 533824 shares |