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Source document· December 7, 2025

Wall Street's 2026 outlook for stocks

View original at finance.yahoo.com
Wall Street's 2026 outlook for stocks It’s that time of year when Wall Street’s top strategists tell clients where they see the stock market heading in the year ahead…
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  • S&P 500 will reach 7,400 by end of 2026 with EPS of $305

    80% confidence
  • We're in the midst of a new bull market and earnings cycle, especially for many of the lagging areas of the index

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 8,000 by end of 2026

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,800 by end of 2026 with EPS of $317

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,500 by end of 2026 with EPS of $300, suggesting another year of double-digit gains mirroring the late 1990s equity boom

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,100 by end of 2026 with EPS of $310, implying approximately 5% price return

    80% confidence
  • The price target should be viewed as a compass as opposed to a GPS

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,300 by end of 2026 with EPS of $310

    80% confidence
  • Magnificent 7 names expected to lead earnings surge but growth rate expected to cool from recent years

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,700 by end of 2026 with EPS of $310

    80% confidence
  • The standard deviation around the mean annual total return for the S&P 500 is nearly 20 percentage points

    80% confidence
  • Valuations will rise a lot further before the bubble, if there is one, bursts

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,400 by end of 2026

    80% confidence
  • Mid-term election years since 1946 averaged 18% intra-year drawdown, highest of all four years of presidential cycle

    80% confidence
  • 2026 should be volatile since it is a mid-term election year, especially since a 'wave' is at stake

    80% confidence
  • Current elevated multiples correctly anticipate above-trend earnings growth, an AI capex boom, rising shareholder payouts, and easier fiscal and monetary policies

    80% confidence
  • We expect a pickup in earnings growth in 2026 to 14% from 10% in 2025, taking S&P 500 EPS to $320

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,800 by end of 2026 with EPS of $310

    80% confidence
  • 2026 will be just another year of the Roaring 2020s

    80% confidence
  • Inflation expected to remain above the Fed's 2% target rate in 2026

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,500 by end of 2026 with EPS of $309, driven by approximately 14% earnings growth

    80% confidence
  • Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in 2026

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,500 by end of 2026 with EPS of $315

    80% confidence
  • One Big Beautiful Bill Act expected to add 0.9% to GDP

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 8,000 by end of 2026 with EPS of $320

    80% confidence
  • Consensus calls for 14% earnings growth for S&P 500 in 2026

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,750 by end of 2026 with EPS of $311

    80% confidence
  • The backdrop is positive for US assets — it's too early to call the bull run over

    80% confidence
What we know · the intelligence behind this page
Live from the substrate
What we're seeing
AI Leadership Exodus Rattles Investor Confidence Amid Capex Boom
High-profile departures at top AI labs — Brad Lightcap's exit from OpenAI and an unnamed researcher's departure from Alphabet/Google that triggered a share-price drop — are surfacing talent retention as a market risk factor even as hyperscalers pour record capital into AI infrastructure. The reaction shows investors treating key-person risk at frontier AI labs as material to valuation, a new fragility layered onto an otherwise bullish AI-driven capex cycle.
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EPKINLY Regulatory-Clinical Success Cascade
High probability of expanded label indications, additional combination approvals, and competitive positioning strength in follicular lymphoma market. Predicts positive commercial uptake and potential accelerated review for related indications.
Patterns we're watching ›
Where sources disagree
Broadcom Inc.
Both facts report EPS for Broadcom Inc. for the same fiscal period (Q1 2026) observed on the same date (2026-02-01). However, they report conflicting values: 1.5 USD per share vs 2.05 USD per share. This is a 37% difference for the identical metric and time period, not a value change over time.
We flag conflicts openly ›
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